Abstract
Arctic regions are experiencing the most rapid climate change globally and adaptation has been identified as a priority across scales. Anticipatory planning to adapt to the impacts of climate change usually follows a number of steps: assess current and future vulnerability, identify potential adaptations, prioritize options, implement prioritized options, and monitor and evaluate implementation. While most of these steps are well documented, there has been limited examination of the process of adaptation prioritization in Arctic communities. In this paper, we build upon existing tools and propose a framework for prioritizing adaptation options and guiding decision-making for implementation in Arctic regions. Using four adaptation performance criteria (timescale, equity, sustainability and total costs) to evaluate options through a multi-criteria decision analysis coupled with a network centric approach, our Adaptation Prioritization Framework promotes a participatory approach for adaptation prioritization and planning. We illustrate application of the framework using a hypothetical example from the territory of Nunavut in the Canadian Arctic.
Highlights
It is widely acknowledged that the Arctic is undergoing transformative change in climatic conditions, with wide-ranging implications for human and natural systems already documented, and significantSustainability 2015, 7 warming projected for the future [1]
The detailed results of the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for each adaptation option are presented in Table 3, with additional detail provided in supplementary materials
We propose a framework for prioritizing adaptation options using a participatory approach
Summary
It is widely acknowledged that the Arctic is undergoing transformative change in climatic conditions, with wide-ranging implications for human and natural systems already documented, and significantSustainability 2015, 7 warming projected for the future [1]. Reflecting the visibility and risks posed by climate change, the last decade has experienced a rapid increase in Arctic research on impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability [10,11,12,13]. While much of this work has focused on developing a baseline understanding on the pathways through which climate change affects northern communities, projects are increasingly working with decision makers to support the development of adaptation plans and strategies [3,14,15,16]. Interest in adaptation at a territorial and regional level has increased in Canada, emerging as an important focus of territorial climate change plans (e.g., [21,22]), and a feature of research and lobbying by organizations representing northern Indigenous populations
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