Abstract
The paper describes an approach that allows, basing on the data of multiparameter monitoring of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters and using ground-based and satellite measurements, to select from the data stream a time interval indicating the beginning of the final stage of earthquake preparation, and finally using intelligent data processing to carry out a short-term forecast for a time interval of 2 weeks to 1 day before the main shock. Based on the physical model of the lithosphere-atmospheric-ionospheric coupling, the precursors are selected, the ensemble of which is observed only during the precursory periods, and their identification is based on morphological features determined by the physical mechanism of their generation, and not on amplitude selection based on statistical data processing. Basing on the developed maquette of the automatic processing service, the possibility of real-time monitoring of the situation in a seismically active region will be demonstrated using the territory of the Kamchatka region and the Kuril Islands.
Highlights
This is an ideal picture, and characteristic, only for this region, because nighttime positive variations can appear a day before the earthquake, and several days, and during one night, but several nights in a row
The paper describes an approach that allows, basing on the data of multiparameter monitoring of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters and using ground-based and satellite measurements, to select from the data stream a time interval indicating the beginning of the final stage of earthquake preparation, and using intelligent data processing to carry out a short-term forecast for a time interval of 2 weeks to 1 day before the main shock
The process boils down to the recognition of the precursor image, where, for example, in the case of ionospheric precursors, an image was developed the “mask” of the precursor, which manifests itself in the form of a strong positive variation of the electron concentration over the earthquake preparation zone [8]
Summary
In [1], short-term precursors of earthquakes are listed, the generation of which is due to the development of a cascade process of the Earth's outer geo-shells coupling and which we use to create a short-term forecast (if data on these parameters are available). The process boils down to the recognition of the precursor image, where, for example, in the case of ionospheric precursors, an image was developed the “mask” of the precursor, which manifests itself in the form of a strong positive variation of the electron concentration over the earthquake preparation zone [8] This is the only parameter for the interpretation of which human intervention is required, since it is the image that is recognized in the form of a “stalactite-stalagmite” structure - vertical structures on the “mask” image corresponding to the evening and morning positive variations (Fig. 1). When making a forecast, a period of time typical for a given region is indicated, and is determined from multi-year observation data
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