Principal land use changes anticipated in Europe

Abstract

Major changes in land use may be anticipated in Europe in the decades to come as a result of technological, socio-economic and political developments as well as global environmental change. The type and effects of these changes will strongly depend on policy decisions which are governed, amongst others, by: (i) an increasing agricultural productivity; (ii) an increasing realization of the need to conserve bio-diversity and environmental quality for current and future generations; (iii) pressure from an increasingly urban population to emphasize non-agricultural forms of land use in terms of nature and landscape conservation; (iv) increasing market-driven demand for high quality produce made with environmentally friendly forms of management; and (v) increasing food demand on the world market as the world population doubles and purchasing powers increases, particularly in Asia. These developments occur now both in Eastern and Western Europe, even though historical developments during the last 50 years have been strikingly different in these two regions. Collectivization in Eastern Europe after World War II was associated with higher yields but also with unfavourable changes in land use and cropping patterns causing acidification, soil erosion, salinization and chemical pollution. The change to democracy in the late 1980s implied a change from an essentially quantity- to a more quality-oriented type of agriculture, like in Western Europe where an industrialized agriculture had also caused environmental problems. Emphasis is now being placed on rational land use, which includes optimization of farm size and the development and implementation of economically viable crop production techniques which result in high quality produce as well as limited adverse environmental side effects. However, these ideals are far from being realized. According to some studies, the technical possibilities of modern agriculture can theoretically in future provide an adequate volume of produce from only 30 to 50% of the current agricultural area in western Europe. This implies potential for other forms of land use in the remaining land area. However, other studies emphasizing low external input agriculture or extrapolation of historical trends, indicate that the current land area may be needed to produce adequate food, certainly when considering the future world market demand. This conclusion is also supported by the fact that theoretical production levels are often much higher than real levels, because of various agronomic and socio-economic factors. A major challenge for the decades ahead is to avoid uncontrolled developments of land use with possibly adverse socio-economic and environmental effects; the latter include the time-delayed release of harmful chemicals, currently held in some soils, into the environment and the enhanced emission of radiatively active trace gases from soils to atmosphere. Controlled developments yielding sustainable forms of agricultural land use in some areas and nature development in others, is to be preferred and should ideally be based on eco-regional approaches. The authors advocate initiation of comprehensive, exploratory studies for Europe in which sustainable production of major land units is defined as a function of different types of land management and in which Europe is seen as part of the world economy. Six exploratory studies are reviewed in this paper; however, none of these scenario studies has the necessary comprehensive character and none is based on adequate land data.