Principal Component Analysis of Short-term Electric Load Forecast Data Based on Grey Forecast

Abstract

With the large-scale development of the power industry, new requirements are put forward for the stable operation of the power system. Power system load forecasting refers to the use of historical load data to predict the future load value, which is an important part of energy management system. The short-term load forecasting process is often combined with the basic mechanism of power grid dispatching to achieve the balance of power grid supply and demand, reflecting the highly nonlinear computing ability. Power load forecasting is the premise of power grid real-time control, operation planning and development planning. At present, the grey model model used for power system load forecasting generally has the problems of large calculation amount, no mature theoretical basis for selecting structures and parameters, etc. This paper discusses the application of grey model in short-term power load forecasting, and puts forward a principal component analysis method suitable for ordinary daily power load forecasting data, which improves the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting.