Abstract
The study had been made to forecast the price of mango using ARIMA model in one of the major markets of Uttar Pradesh as the state ranks first position in production of mango in India. Varanasi market was selected purposively on the basis of second highest arrival market of mango in the state. Using ARIMA methodology on the monthly prices of mango collected from the Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC), Varanasi for the year 1993 to 2015. As the mango fruit having property of alternate bearing, only six month data from March to August was available in the market and accordingly had been used for forecasting analysis using E-views 7 software. The results revealed that the price in selected market was found to be highest during the start of the season using ARIMA (1,0,6) model, confirming the validity of model through Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE was found to be less than 10 per cent for one step ahead forecast of year 2015. Forecasted price for the month of March was almost double than the price of other months. It indicates the necessity of adopting pre and post harvest management technologies for getting the benefit over increase in prices.
Highlights
Mango being the major fruit enacts stunning role in meeting the variety of food requirements in civilized and uncivilized area of the nation
Price of mango fruit depends upon its production and on its yield, but in some ways pre and post harvest management affects the price of fruit
The above procedures were followed for forecasting the prices of mango in the Varanasi market
Summary
Mango being the major fruit enacts stunning role in meeting the variety of food requirements in civilized and uncivilized area of the nation. The fruit ranks first position in terms of area and that’s why it is known as king of fruits in India. Being the king of fruits, the productivity of mango crop (7.3 Mt/Ha) was much lesser than the other fruit crops Citrus-10.3 Mt/Ha, Papaya-42.3 Mt/Ha, Guava13.7 Mt/Ha, Apple-21.8 Mt/Ha, Grapes-15.8 Mt/Ha and Pomogranate-10.3 Mt/Ha), (Indian Horticultural Database, 2014). The yield of a crop has more effects on price of a fruit. Price of mango fruit depends upon its production and on its yield, but in some ways pre and post harvest management affects the price of fruit.
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