Abstract
BackgroundHemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90 % of the total global cases. Yiyuan County is one of the most serious affected areas in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence in Yiyuan to make the control of HFRS more effective.MethodsThe study was based on the reported cases of HFRS from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. The demographic and spatial distributions of HFRS in Yiyuan were established. Then we fit autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and predict the HFRS epidemic trend.ResultsThere were 362 cases reported in Yiyuan during the 10-year study period. The human infections in the fall and winter reflected a seasonal characteristic pattern of Hantaan virus (HTNV) transmission. The best model was ARIMA (2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 (AIC value 516.86) with a high validity.ConclusionThe ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.
Highlights
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90 % of the total global cases
Our study was based on HFRS epidemic data from Yiyuan County, China, where it could provide a basis for HFRS prevention and control
Descriptive analysis of HFRS in Yiyuan County A total of 362 cases were reported in Yiyuan County during the 10-year study period
Summary
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90 % of the total global cases. HFRS was first recognized in northeastern China in 1931 and has been prevalent in many other parts of China since 1955 At present, it is highly endemic in mainland China accounting for 90 % of the total cases reported in the world [4,5,6,7]. This study aimed to establish the current situation of endemic HFRS in Yiyuan, and characterize its spatiotemporal distribution and demographic distribution characteristics. Our study was based on HFRS epidemic data from Yiyuan County, China, where it could provide a basis for HFRS prevention and control
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