Prevalence and prediction of pre-hospital medical trauma in Urumqi

Abstract

Objective To investigate the current situation of pre-hospital trauma emergency medical care of Urumqi in 2011-2018 and predict the situation in the next five years, so as to provide a basis for rational allocation of pre-hospital emergency resources and improvement of health service system. Methods A total of 427 754 pre-hospital emergency patients were collected from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2008 in Urumqi. Epidemiological methods were performed for statistical description and analysis. The single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)], multi-factor grey model and moving average model (MA1) was established for predicting the number of pre-hospital trauma patients each year. The single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)] and SARIMA model were used for the seasonal prediction. Results The male-female ratio of pre-hospital trauma patients was 1.98:1 and the incidence rate of male patients (534.91/100 000) was significantly higher than that of female patients (274.88/100 000) (χ2=7 659.707, P<0.01), and the incidence rate of male patients was 1.95 times higher than that of female patients. The trauma patients aged 35-59 years accounted for the largest proportion (42%), and the incidence of the disease was the highest among those aged≥ 60 years old (644.23/100 000). The incidence of pre-hospital trauma increased year by year (from 408.86/100 000 in 2011 to 550.02/100 000 in 2017), with a high incidence in summer (27 123, 31.03%), especially in August (9 535, 10.91%), most of which occurred in the new urban area (high-tech zone) (23 157, 26.50%). The single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)] , multi-factor gray model, and moving average model (MA1) predicted that the total number of pre-hospital trauma patients in 2023 was 13 118, 11 715 and 13 305, respectively, and the MAE were 451.125 0, 607.428 6, and 205.125 0, respectively. The single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)] and SARIMA model predicted the value in the summer of 2023 would be 3 638 and 4 999, respectively, and the MAE were 47.129 0 and 110.370 4, respectively. Conclusions The pre-hospital trauma in Urumqi is mainly male and young work-age adults, the incidence of the elderly is the highest, summer is the season of high incidence, and the new urban area (high-tech zone) is the primary district. The moving average model (MA1) model has a more accurate annual prediction, and the single-factor gray model [GM (1,1)] is the best model for seasonal prediction. The pre-hospital trauma emergency medical care demand will continue to increase in the next five years. The health administrative department should enlarge the allocation of pre-hospital emergency resources and improve the emergency service capabilities and efficiencies. Key words: Urumqi; Trauma; Pre-hospital emergency medical care; Current situation; Prediction