Pressure versus ability: Evidence from penalty shoot-outs between teams from different divisions

Abstract

This study utilizes data from 586 shoot-outs between teams from different divisions in national cups of the top five European soccer countries. We find that a difference in one league between the teams increases the gap between probabilities of winning by 8 percentage points in favor of a team from a higher division. This result contradicts the widespread belief that penalty shoot-outs are a game of chance, highlighting the importance of ability even in a simple mechanical task that takes place in high-pressure situations.