Abstract
When Donald Trump was elected as US President in November 2016, he initially signaled some real hope for the peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some analysts argued that he may actually manage to deliver what he calls "the deal of the century" and bring peace to Israel and Palestine. These assumptions were based on the fact that President Trump is the type of person that could wake up one morning, say "enough", and pressure Israeli and Palestinian leaders to sign a peace deal on his terms. Early on in his presidency, Trump made the conflict a strategic priority and unconventionally chose to go to the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Israel and Palestine) on his first trip abroad as President. During a press conference with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Bethlehem, he said that "if Israel and the Palestinians can make peace, it will begin a process of peace all throughout the Middle East." This was in line with Europe's standard inside-out approach (Israeli-Palestinian peace first, Israeli-Arab normalization later). But on December 2019, Trump made it clear that his much-anticipated peace deal will favour Israel when he recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and promised to move the US embassy there. This led Abbas to brand Trump's peace efforts as "the slap of the century" and say the US could no longer play any role in the Middle East peace process following the move. This paper has general objective of appraising the Trump peace deal in Middle East, and evaluate it to see does the process would bring real peace or escalation of crisis in the Middle East. The paper has argued that for peace to be guaranteed in the Middle East, justice, fair play and inclusiveness must be demonstrated by any third party who want intervene and bring peace in the Middle East. Keywords: Conflict, Middle East, Peace Deal, US intervention DOI: 10.7176/IAGS/82-04 Publication date: May 31 st 2020
Highlights
President Trump seemed to be in favour of the outside-in approach (Israeli-Arab normalization first, IsraeliPalestinian peace later) to the conflict
Definition of Concepts Peace Plan Strategies goal The Trump peace plan is a blue print to "Israeli-Palestinian Peace Agreement" which will end the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, and end all claims between the parties. (White House, 2020) The success is defined as finalized plan to be codified by UN Security Council resolution, and a new UN General Assembly resolution replacing previous resolutions
Conditions for the Peace Deal Israeli conditions The plan requires no conditions of Israel in order for it to proceed with annexation. (Trump 2018) On 29 January, 2019 the US ambassador to Israel said that before any annexation of the West Bank or the Jordan Valley took place the Trump administration "wants to form a joint committee with Israel to discuss the issue." and that "it is impossible to know how long this process will take...we need to ensure the annexation matches the map in our plan."(Trump Peace Plan, 2019)
Summary
President Trump seemed to be in favour of the outside-in approach (Israeli-Arab normalization first, IsraeliPalestinian peace later) to the conflict. According to Palestinian officials that spoke to the media on condition of anonymity, this version of the peace plan included the establishment of a Palestinian state with provisional borders on half of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, without Jerusalem, and with only humanitarian solutions to the refugee issue. The latest round of leaks implies that Trump's peace plan will go ahead with or without the Palestinian approval This would mean a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from parts of the West Bank if the Palestinians reject the plan, as they are widely expected to do. A unilateral Israeli withdrawal from parts of the West Bank is precisely what the INSS, the leading centre-left Israeli think-tank, has long advocated for In this context, it is worth remembering that a similar discussion to this conflict took place nearly 15 years ago, when Israel decided to unilaterally disengage from Gaza.
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