The Quantitative Basis, Geopolitical Motivation and Influence of the Qualitative Change in the Relationship between the United Arab Emirates and Israel

Abstract

The United Arab Emirates and Israel have reached a peace deal, and the relations between the two countries have undergone a qualitative change. This kind of qualitative change has a relatively sufficient basis of quantitative change: The signing of the peace deal between Egypt and Israel, the conclusion of the Oslo Accords, the obvious warming of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel after the “Arab Spring”, and the gradual warming of relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. The peace deal between the United Arab Emirates and Israel has a lot to do with the geopolitical changes in the Middle East in recent years. This is mainly manifested in two aspects: First, the geopolitical changes brought about by the rise of Iran’s power; second, Turkey’s Pan-Islamism diplomacy guided by the “new Ottoman” vision has promoted the geopolitical changes in the Middle East. These geopolitical changes have become important driving forces behind the peace deal between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. The peace deal between the United Arab Emirates and Israel has a certain impact on Palestine, the Trump administration and the Middle East, but the nature of the impact is different: It has a greater negative impact on Palestine; it has a certain positive impact on the Trump administration; it has both positive and negative effects on peace in the Middle East as a whole, but the overall impact is limited, and the negative impact is greater than the positive impact. It can produce a certain demonstration effect for Arab countries, but the demonstration effect for small Arab countries is greater than that for Saudi Arabia.