Presenting the Spatio-Temporal Model for Predicting and Determining Permissible Land Use Changes Based on Drinking Water Quality Standards: A Case Study of Northern Iran

Abstract

Quantifying the effect of non-point source pollution from different land use types (e.g., agricultural lands, pastures, orchards, and urban areas) on stream water quality is critical in determining the extent and type of land use. The relationship between surface water quality as the primary source of drinking water and land use patterns in suburban areas with an accelerated pace of industrial development and progressive growth of population has drawn much attention recently. This study aims to determine the type and portion of the land use changes over three-time intervals from 2000 to 2015 in the Jajrood River Catchment (Tehran metropolis, north of Iran). We used satellite images of Landsat TM and ETM for 2005, 2010, and 2015 to analyze land use changes as a spatiotemporal model. According to the image processing and analysis, we classified the land uses of the study area into irrigated farming, orchards, pastures, and residential areas. In addition, we used temporal data from sampling stations to identify the relationship between land use and water quality based on a multivariate regression model. The analysis shows a significant correlation between the type and extent of land use and water quality parameters, including pH, Na+, Ca+, Mg+, Cl−, SO42−, NO3−, and TDS. Pastures and residential areas had the highest impact on water quality parameters among all land use types. Besides, we have used the regression analysis results to determine the maximum permissible areas of each land use type. Consequently, effective management strategies such as land use optimization in catchment scale for this catchment and similar areas will help to consciously protect and manage the quality of drinking water resources.