Present-day climate and projected future temperature and precipitation changes in Ecuador

Abstract

Ecuador is likely to experience significant impacts associated with future changes in climate, but future projections for this region are challenging due to the complex topography and a wide range of climatic conditions. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 10 km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing all of Ecuador to investigate future changes in temperature and precipitation for the middle of the twenty-first century (2041–2070) under a low (RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. The model was validated by running 30-year control runs for the present climate, driven both by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and the CCSM4 General Circulation Model. Bias and different correlation coefficient metrics were employed to compare the present-day model results with gridded (CRU TS v 4.03 and CHIRPS v 2.0) and in situ meteorological observations. Detailed hydrometeorological analyses over the Andes in both space and time domains show that WRF accurately simulates temperature variability. The precipitation seasonal cycle and interannual variability are also adequately simulated, but the model shows a general dry bias over the lowlands and a significant wet bias along the eastern Andean slopes. Results from future projections show that Ecuador could warm by an additional 1–2 K by the middle of the century compared with the end of the twentieth century. This warming is highly elevation-dependent, subjecting the highest peaks of the Andes to the strongest future warming. Bias-corrected future precipitation changes document a drying trend along coastal areas in RCP4.5 and increased future precipitation along the eastern Andean slopes in both scenarios.