Present and future climate potentials for several outdoor tourism activities in Spain

Abstract

Spain is one of the leading tourist destinations worldwide, but also a climate change hot-spot. Weather conditions throughout the year have enabled the implementation of alternative outdoor leisure activities to beach-based tourism, helping to alleviate the strong seasonality. Climate is currently a positive resource but it could become a limiting factor for these activities in the future. Here, we assess the present and future conditions by adopting the second generation climate index for tourism (CIT) to quantify the climate potentials for cultural, golf, sailing, hiking, cycling and football activities. Present and future potentials are derived using observed and projected daily meteorological data from the ERA-5 reanalysis and the DMI-HIRHAM5 regional climate model (RCM) included in EURO-CORDEX project, respectively. A quantile–quantile adjustment is applied to the projected CIT data to correct biases at the local scale. Present climate potentials confirm the optimal conditions of the Spanish Mediterranean coast for practicing all the activities in spring and autumn, while in summer, ideal conditions only prevail for sailing. Projections show a general future increase of excellent climate potentials in winter and a general improvement of the weather assets in the northern half of the country during the shoulder seasons, except for cycling and football.