Premarital Birth Among Young Hispanic Women: Evidence from Semiparametric Competing Risks Analysis

Abstract

The existing literature on welfare effects on marriage and fertility has largely focused on groups of white and black women. By contrast, Hispanic women have received little attention. This paper examines the effects of welfare generosity on a sample of young Hispanic women’s premarital fertility and marriage choices. A bivariate competing risks duration model framework allows us to identify the process of young women’s premarital fertility and the process of marriage, effectively controlling for observed characteristics and unobservables. Our findings indicate a 10% increase in welfare generosity results in a 10% increase in premarital births and a 7% decrease in marriages by age 24; both effects are significant.