PRELIMINARY RESULTS PART 1: INVESTIGATING OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCES WITH DIFFERENT DISTRIBUTION MODELS IN THE MARMARA SEA AND SURROUNDING, TURKEY

Abstract

In this study, we investigated earthquake occurrences with different distribution models in the Marmara Sea and surrounding, Turkey. We analyzed for all earthquake occurrences of M s magnitude of a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue to each instrumental other historical periods. So, we used Beta, Normal, Gamma, Lognormal and Weibull distributions for 6 different seismogenic source zones in the Marmara Sea. Later, we plotted Probability Density Function (PDF), Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF), Hazard Function (HF), Cumulative Hazard Function (CHF), Survival Function (SF), Probability Difference, P-P plot, Q-Q plot. We determined the best suitable model for the assessment of earthquake occurrences. After that, we applied Goodness of Fit for used all distributions and obtained test results. Goodness of Fit concerned Kolmogorov Smirnov (K-S), Anderson Darling and Chi-Squared tests. Consequently, we determined to used earthquake hazard analysis with different distribution models. This study can be helpful science humans to determined earthquake hazard analysis in the Marmara Sea and surrounding.