Bayesian Probabilities Of Earthquake Occurrences In And Around The Marmara Sea (Western Nafz), Turkey

Abstract

Summary In this study, Bayesian probability method applied using the extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences to estimate the earthquake hazard in and around the Marmara Sea, (western NAFZ). Basic parameters (prior estimates) for computing the Bayesian prior estimates of the seismicity were determined as the slip rate, magnitude, seismic moment and earthquake recurrence rate. After that, parameters were updated (posterior) in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical estimates of seismicity in and around the Marmara Sea. The Sakarya-Duzce (Karadere-Duzce Basins) zone and Tekirdag-Merkez-Kumburgaz-Cinarcik Basins (Marmara Sea) zone estimated high seismicity in next years. Six different seismogenic source zones in the Marmara Sea were estimated probabilities of exceedance of earthquake with 6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5 and 8.5 upper bound magnitudes. We selected time period of T=5, 20 and 100 years and were determined coefficients of variation (v=0.1, 0.25 and 1.0 values). As a result of this study, The northern branch of NAFZ occurred earthquake in next years. The Sakarya-Duzce and Marmara Sea have determined the most dangerous regions in next 100-year.