Preliminary Performance of the Computerized Inventory-Monitoring System for Pine Seed Orchards

Abstract

Abstract A seed orchard Inventory-Monitoring System (IMS) and companion computer program were tested for predictive accuracy and monitoring effectiveness in an operational loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) seed orchard. The IMS was used to predict 1980 and 1981 cone harvests by tracking the survival of strobili on sample trees representing each producing clone in the orchard. The 1980 cone harvest was substantially overestimated, possibly due to the use of generalized cone efficiency estimates. Predictions for the 1981 cone harvest, made with the benefit of clonal cone efficiency estimates from the 1980 crop, were much more accurate, under-estimating the actual harvest by as little as 5%.Predictive performance of the IMS is expected to improve with accumulation of productivity data for each clone and with the reduction of nonclonal sources of variation resulting from improved orchard management practices. Seed orchard-to-nursery efficiency (SO-NE) data from the system's monitoring function showed that low SO-NE values for the orchard of 22 % in 1980 and 24 % in 1981 were due mainly to low cone efficiency and low seed efficiency.2