Abstract
Extract This book speaks to one of the central questions of cyber strategy, namely, to what extent do cyberspace operations increase the risks of escalation between nation-state rivals? While scholars and practitioners have been concerned about escalation dynamics in cyberspace for decades, the question remains insufficiently answered. Moreover, the extent to which cyber operations lead to escalation has growing relevance for international politics as more states develop and employ offensive cyber capabilities and as the international system is increasingly characterized by emergent multipolarity. We present a comprehensive theoretical framework to identify core characteristics of operating in cyberspace and assess the implications for when cyber operations may cause escalation—through both cyber and cross-domain means. We also extend our analysis to explore how these same factors may impact the utility of cyber operations for certain forms of signaling, which is inextricably linked to the process of escalation and escalation management in particular. Our theoretical analysis and case studies strongly suggest that cyber operations are not as escalatory as some observers might suggest and, instead, may serve de-escalation purposes. There are a number of critical aspects of planning and conducting cyber operations that mitigate the risks of escalation. Offensive cyber operations with strategic effects are difficult and complex to plan and conduct, have unreliable and unpredictable efficacy, and are limited in their abilities to generate meaningful costs against targets. Moreover, rather than make escalation risks more salient, the secrecy of cyber operations and their plausible deniability can create breathing room that dampens escalation risks and provide opportunity for cooler heads to prevail. Finally, the substantial intelligence value that cyber operations provide creates trade-offs that may make decision makers averse to conducting escalatory offensive cyber operations in lieu of other actions.
Published Version
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