Prediksi Jarak Luncur Longsoran berdasarkan Parameter Geometri Lereng dan Tipe Batuan

Abstract

landslide disaster. Based on this fact, a method is needed to predict the range of landslides to minimize the impact of disaster losses. The empirical statistical method is one of the methods that can be used to predict landslides by taking input data from the history of previous landslide events. This research aims to find the best modeling form for sliding distance prediction and which parameters influence a landslide's sliding distance prediction. This study used multiple linear regression methods. The data used in this study are geometric slope parameters in the form of slope height (H), original slope (θ), landslide area (A), and rock type (RT). The data was taken from the 2015-2021 PVMBG landslide investigation report and used the Google Earth and Global Mapper program. Based on the analysis of the best empirical model that can predict the sliding distance of a landslide log Lmax = 0,387 – 0,097 RT + 0,230 log H + 0,458 log A – 0,220 tan θ with an R2 value of 0,94 and an average estimated error of 31,56%. The parameter that has the most influence on the prediction of sliding distance is the area affected by the landslide (A).