Predictors of Lung Transplant Survival in Eurotransplant

Abstract

This study was undertaken to assess the influence of patient/donor and center factors on lung transplantation outcome. Outcomes of all consecutive first cadaveric lung transplants performed at 21 Eurotransplant centers in 1997–99 were analyzed. The risk-adjusted center effect on mortality was estimated. A Cox model was built including donor and recipient age and gender, primary disease, HLA mismatches, patient's residence, cold ischemic time, donor's cause of death, serum creatinine, type of lung transplant, respiratory support status, clinical condition and percentage predicted FEV1. The center effect was calculated (expressed as the standardized difference between the observed and expected survival rates), and empirical and full Bayes methods were applied to evaluate between-center differences. A total of 590 adults underwent lung transplantation. The primary disease (p=0.01), HLA-mismatches (p = 0.02), clinical condition(p < 0.0001) and the patient's respiratory support status (p = 0.05) were significantly associated with survival. After adjusting for case-mix, no between-center differences could be found. An in-depth empirical Bayes analysis showed the between-center variation to be zero. Similar results were obtained from the full Bayes analysis. Based on these data, there is no scientific basis to support a hypothesis of possible association between center volume and lung survival rates.