Predictors of Life Expectancy at Birth In Turkiye: A Longitudinal Study

Abstract

ABSTRACT Objective: The aim of this study is to examine the impact of social, behavioral, economic and healthcare system related factors on life expectancy at birth in Turkiye. Methods: Enrollment rate in tertiary education, tobacco consumption gram per capita, out-of-pocket payments and GDP per capita were included as predictors. The data was obtained from the database of OECD, World Bank and Health Statistics Yearbooks published by Ministry of the Health for 2000-2019. Johansen Cointegration test was used to define the existence of the long-run statistical relationship between life expectancy at birth and the predictors. Results: Enrollment rate in tertiary education, GDP per capita and out-of-pocket payments are positively associated with life expectancy, while tobacco consumption gram per capita has a negative association. It has been concluded that short-term deviations from the equilibrium, using an error correction model, will reach long-term equilibrium approximately one year later. Granger causality test and the estimation result revealed that enrollment rate in tertiary education, tobacco consumption, out-of-pocket health expenditure, GDP per capita are the short-term and long-term causes of life expectancy at birth. Conclusion: This study provides important evidence for policymakers to allocate resources to the social, behavioral, healthcare-related and economic determinants of health status to increase life expectancy. In addition, the determination of out-of-pocket payments to have a positive relationship with life expectancy gives a clue about the need to make more efforts regarding the economic accessibility of healthcare services in the Turkish health system.