Analisis Perilaku Sektor Pertanian Indonesia: Aplikasi Vector Error Correction Model

Abstract

The specific goals of this research are: Firstly, in the long run perspective, the goal is to analyze impact of policy that inflating agriculture price to growth, employment, and investment in agriculture sector. Secondly, in the short run perspective, the goals are: (1) to analyze which economic blocks that have most producing instability to agriculture sector, (2) to analyze behaviour of inflation in agriculture sector and causality relationship both among output price and input prices and among input prices. Quantitative methods that are used in this study are Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, and Granger Causality Test. Data used in this research from several sources such as Bank Indonesia, BPS Statistic, International Financial Statistic and CEIC data Company Limited, series data from first mountly of 1993 (1993:01) up to the last mountly of 2002 (2002:12). In the agriculture sector, production (output) and capital are responsive to change in the output price. This mean that inflating the output price effectively help generate output and new investment in this sector. Nevertheless because shock in price can be source of instability to agriculture sector, so government should becarefully apply policies that can inflating the price in agriculture. To solve unemployment problem in agriculture sector, government should apply cost strategy such as subsidy policy of input price. Keywords: Instabilitas, Pergerakan Harga, Employment, Investasi, Sektor Pertanian, Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test