Predictors of early and late recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation: two sides of the same coin?

Abstract

Abstract Background Recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after catheter ablation (CA) is estimated to be between 20% and 45%. Recurrent AF early after ablation is generally classified as benign as a part of a blanking period, but recently has been associated with later recurrent AF. The prediction of early and late AF recurrence after CA remains challenging as well as the predictive value of early AF recurrence in the blanking period. Purpose We aimed to determine the clinical and procedural factors associated with early and late recurrence of AF after CA. Methods Single-centre retrospective study that included all patients who underwent AF CA between January 2017 and October 2019. Ablation procedures included radiofrequency and second-generation cryoballoon CA. Early recurrence of AF (ERAF) was defined as any recurrence of AF >30 seconds within 90 days after CA and late recurrence (LR) was defined as any recurrence of AF >30 seconds after 90 days of CA. The independent association between clinical and procedural variables and AF recurrence was evaluated with logistic regression analysis. Results We included 399 patients, 64,7% male, with a mean age of 56,8±11,6 years, most of them had paroxysmal AF with a mean duration until CA of 3,5±3,4 years. Early recurrence of AF occurred in 51 patients (12,8%). After multivariate logistic regression, we identify left atrium (LA) diameter [odds ratio (OR) 1,1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1,03–1,18; p=0,007] as the only independent predictor associated with recurrent AF. Late recurrence of AF was observed in 104 patients (26,1%), on average, 12,8±8,7 months after CA. After multivariable adjustment, LA diameter (OR 1,1, 95% CI 1,01–1,12; p=0,032) and intraprocedural electric cardioversion (OR 1,8, 95% CI 1,03–3,12; p=0,040) were independently associated with recurrent AF. Regarding patients with ERAF, most of them also had late recurrent AF (64,7%), whereas in patients without ERAF, only 20,4% had LR (p<0,001). After including ERAF in the multivariate logistic regression, we identify ERAF as the only independent predictor of late recurrence of AF (OR 5,23, 95% CI 2,56–10,72; p<0,001). Conclusions In our cohort, late recurrence of AF after catheter ablation was significantly higher in patients with recurrence within the blanking period, which was the only independent predictor of AF late recurrence. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.