Abstract
Some are unclear whether risk assessment instruments, specifically dynamic risk instruments, have demonstrated utility in the risk estimation, treatment recommendations, and monitoring change over time in men at risk for or under sentence of Indeterminate Detention (ID) for sexual offenses. We compare two datasets, the first consisting of individuals representing a routine sample of persons convicted of a sexual offense and the second of men representative of a high risk/needs sample. These two distinct samples (n = 442, mean Static-99R score = 2.4; n = 168, mean Static-99R score 4.5) were then also scored on the Stable-2007. For both groups this scoring occurred in an institutional setting. The Stable-2007 predicted sexual recidivism in Sample 1 independently and in conjunction with the Static-99R. In the high-risk sample the results were the same. In both samples a compound outcome variable (Sexual + Violent reoffense) was also calculated with the Stable-2007 predicting the compound outcome variable in Sample 1 but not Sample 2. This is interesting in that it suggests that the Stable-2007 assesses constructs specific to sexual re-offense in higher risk offenders and not general traits of violence or common anti-social behaviour. Limitations and directions for further research are discussed.
Highlights
The Static-99R and Stable-2007 are widely used actuarial instruments in the domain of risk assessment for men who have committed sexual offences
Why was this study done? While the instruments are widely used in incarcerated populations, the Stable-2007 was normed on a community sample, and there has been concern raised regarding the validity of this instrument for men who have served lengthy prison sentences
What do these findings mean? The results indicate that the Static-99R and the Stable-2007 can be used in the prediction of sexual, but not serious reoffence for men who have been incarcerated for lengthy periods of time
Summary
The Static-99R and Stable-2007 are widely used actuarial instruments in the domain of risk assessment for men who have committed sexual offences. They have been found to be valid indicators of risk in countries around the world, in a variety of settings. The Static-99R and the Stable-2007 were scored on two independent samples of men incar cerated for having committed sexual offences. Results showed that in both samples the Static-99R added incrementally to the predictive validity of the Static-99R for the prediction of sexual recidivism. For serious (i.e., sexual + violent) recidivism the Stable-2007 was only useful in the Routine sample
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