Risk Assessment Among Adults

Abstract

This chapter covers three major risk assessment components which are central to conducting criminal justice or forensic mental health risk assessments. These components include: identification of risk factors, the process of forming a risk estimate, and communication of this estimate. The focus is on routine risk assessments (as compared to threat assessments) among non-sexual offenders and the predicted outcomes of both violence and negative criminal justice outcomes. Although not the only ones to be identified, prominent risk factors can include age, gender, criminal history, past antisocial behaviour, family criminality, financial management, leisure activities, and substance abuse. Risk factors can be categorised into static and dynamic categories. These risk factors have shown a robust relationship with violence and negative criminal justice outcomes. Dynamic risk factors have the potential for change and are thereby amenable to intervention/supervision strategies, whereas static factors remain the same over time. The formulation of a risk estimate involves using a risk assessment instrument. The two main approaches for determining a risk estimate are structured professional judgement and an actuarial approach. The structured professional judgement approach highlights the discretionary aspect of conducting a risk assessment, with a strong focus on managing future risk of violence. The actuarial approach, though, combines risk factors in a systematic way (i.e. adding the items) and the instrument produces a final risk estimate. The importance of race, gender, overrides, and choosing a risk assessment instrument are outlined. Finally, how a risk estimate should be communicated in a risk assessment report is covered. The benefit of using numerics in risk communication and non-arbitrary metrics includes risk estimates to be placed closer to the base-rates. A new risk communication approach involving five levels of risk developed by the Justice Center of the U.S. Council of State Governments is covered. The identification of risk factors, the process of forming a risk estimate, and communication of this estimate all contribute to adequately assessing risk in criminal justice and forensic mental health settings.