Predictive role of peak VO2 for short- and long-term major adverse cardiac events in patients with high cardiovascular risk.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of VO2 measurements in predicting long-term major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in patients with high cardiovascular risk. Based on a10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, 333 patients with high cardiovascular risk were included in this retrospective analysis. The study endpoint was MACEs, comprising all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke, and coronary revascularization. The study cohort was divided into two groups according to the frequency of MACE occurrence. Measurements of VO2 were assessed for the prediction of MACEs. The best predictive accuracy for 1‑year MACEs was determined to be aVO2 max value of ≥ 20.3 mL/kg/min, with 60% specificity and 60% sensitivity (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.51-0.71; p < 0.001), and for 5‑year MACEs it was ≥ 19.9 mL/kg/min, with 69% specificity and 64% sensitivity (AUC: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.62-0.76; p < 0.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis, after adjusting for univariable factors, showed that VO2 max was independently associated with both short- and long-term MACEs in patients at high cardiovascular risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.900, 95% CI: 0.858-0.943, p < 0.001). According to the results of this pilot study, VO2 max can predict both short- and long-term MACEs in patients at high cardiovascular risk.