Predictive nomogram model for severe coronary artery calcification in end-stage kidney disease patients

Abstract

Introduction The Agatston coronary artery calcification score (CACS) is an assessment index for coronary artery calcification (CAC). This study aims to explore the characteristics of CAC in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients and establish a predictive model to assess the risk of severe CAC in patients. Methods CACS of ESKD patients was assessed using an electrocardiogram-gated coronary computed tomography (CT) scan with the Agatston scoring method. A predictive nomogram model was established based on stepwise regression. An independent validation cohort comprised of patients with ESKD from multicentres. Results 369 ESKD patients were enrolled in the training set, and 127 patients were included in the validation set. In the training set, the patients were divided into three subgroups: no calcification (CACS = 0, n = 98), mild calcification (0 < CACS ≤ 400, n = 141) and severe calcification (CACS > 400, n = 130). Among the four coronary branches, the left anterior descending branch (LAD) accounted for the highest proportion of calcification. Stepwise regression analysis showed that age, dialysis vintage, β-receptor blocker, calcium-phosphorus product (Ca × P), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) level were independent risk factors for severe CAC. A nomogram that predicts the risk of severe CAC in ESKD patients has been internally and externally validated, demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion CAC is both prevalent and severe in ESKD patients. In the four branches of the coronary arteries, LAD calcification is the most common. Our validated nomogram model, based on clinical risk factors, can help predict the risk of severe coronary calcification in ESKD patients who cannot undergo coronary CT analysis.