Abstract
BackgroundThe knowledge of distributional dynamics of living organisms is a prerequisite for protecting biodiversity and for the sustainable use of biotic resources. Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. is a small group of shrubby, yellow-flowered species distributed mainly in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Plants in this section are both horticulturally and ecologically important.MethodsUsing past, present, and future environmental variables and data with Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modeling, we evaluated the importance of the environmental variables on the section’s estimated distributions, thus simulating its distributional dynamics over time. The contractions and expansions of suitable habitat between the past and future scenarios and the present were then compared.Results and DiscussionThe models revealed that the areas with high and moderate suitability currently encompass about 725,110 km2. The distribution centroid location varies between points in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia during the different scenarios. Elevation, Mean UV-B of Lowest Month, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter were major factors determining the section’s distribution. Our modeling indicated that Clematis sect. Fruticella underwent a significant range contraction during the last interglacial period, and then expanded during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to amounts like those of the present. Cold, dry, and relatively stable climate, as well as steppe or desert steppe environments may have facilitated range expansion of this cold-adapted, drought-resistant plant taxon during the LGM. Predicted future scenarios show little change in the amounts of suitable habitat for Clematis sect. Fruticella. This study aids understanding of the distributional dynamics of Clematis sect. Fruticella, and the results will help the conservation and sustainable use of these important woody plants in Chinese arid and semiarid areas.
Highlights
Ecological habitats and distributions of living organisms, community compositions, ecosystem structures, and global biodiversity have been significantly influenced by climate changes during the Quaternary period (Qiu, Fu & Comes, 2011; Doxford & Freckleton, 2012; Pio et al, 2014; Carvalho et al, 2015; Sun et al, 2015; Matías et al, 2017; Qin et al, 2017; Zhang et al, 2018a; Zhang et al, 2018b; Wang et al, 2019a; Wang et al, 2019b; Mohammadi et al, 2019)
We propose hypotheses that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) the distribution area of Clematis sect
Fruticella with a cross-validation area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.986 and a true skill statistic (TSS) value of 0.901 indicated that the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model can accurately predict the location of potential suitable habitat (Fig. 2)
Summary
Ecological habitats and distributions of living organisms, community compositions, ecosystem structures, and global biodiversity have been significantly influenced by climate changes during the Quaternary period (Qiu, Fu & Comes, 2011; Doxford & Freckleton, 2012; Pio et al, 2014; Carvalho et al, 2015; Sun et al, 2015; Matías et al, 2017; Qin et al, 2017; Zhang et al, 2018a; Zhang et al, 2018b; Wang et al, 2019a; Wang et al, 2019b; Mohammadi et al, 2019). Global temperature was 5–12 ◦C lower than they are and the glacier areas were 8.4 times of the present time in China (Wang & Liu, 2001; Li et al, 2004; Chen, Kang & Liu, 2011) This greatly affected plant distributions and many plant species significantly shrank their habitat during that time (Xu et al, 2017; Li et al, 2019). The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that by the end of the 21th century, average global temperatures will have increased by 0.3–4.5 ◦C as greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (IPCC, 2013) This will have major effects on future ecosystems and species distributions (Walck et al, 2011; Wang et al, 2019a; Wang et al, 2019b; Li et al, 2019). Fruticella, and the results will help the conservation and sustainable use of these important woody plants in Chinese arid and semiarid areas
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