Abstract
In the last few decades, crude oil has claimed the topmost position in Nigerian export list, constituting a very fundamental change in the structure of Nigerian international trade. In this study, secondary data on monthly crude oil export to the United States was obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) database. Using the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology, the results showed that Seasonal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)<sub>12</sub> model had the least information criteria after the data was Square-Root transformed and non-seasonally first differenced in order to achieve series stationarity. The diagnostic tests on the selected model residuals revealed the residuals are normally distributed uncorrelated random shocks.
Highlights
Crude oil is considered the major source of energy in Nigeria and the world in general
Adubisi [3] used Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedure in modelling the growth pattern of reserve currency in Nigeria, Iwueze et al; [4], modelled the Nigeria external money reserves with Autoregressive Integrated Moving average model, ARIMA modelling approach was used to model yearly exchange rates between USD/KZT, EUR/KZT and SGD/KZT, and the actual data compared with developed forecasts by Daniya [5], Kumar and Anand [6] used ARIMA modelling approach to forecast sugarcane production in Indian
The transformed series was subjected to the Box and Jenkins iterative procedure for ARIMA model building
Summary
Crude oil is considered the major source of energy in Nigeria and the world in general. The ultimate aim of this study is to construct a statistical model that could be used to monitor the export pattern of crude oil export from Nigeria to the United States. Using this model, forecast of future values of crude oil export to the United States can be obtained. Smart [8] explored the feasibility for application of Box-Jenkins Approach (ARIMA) in modelling and forecasting maternal mortality Ratios (MMR) and Adubisi et al; [9] used the seasonal ARIMA to model the Nigeria money in circulation series and produced a three years forecast values using the fitted model
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