Predictive model for diabetes mellitus occurrence in Iran’s southeastern region: a study based on American diabetes association guidelines

Abstract

To control diabetes in a society, risk assessment tools are used to predict disease risk. We aimed to assess the value of different risk factors for diabetes mellitus in a remarkable community in the city of Kerman, one of the vast areas in the southeast of Iran, with the final goal of designing a predictive model for diabetes in this region. This study was a cross-sectional study with the aim of investigating the predictive value of risk factors indicating the presence of diabetes in the population of Kerman City based on the guidelines of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) risk assessment tool. The information of 4000 people participating in the comprehensive screening plan for cardiovascular risk factors in Kerman City was extracted by reviewing the relevant data registry. According to the ADA guideline, 32.5% of participants were at risk for diabetes mellitus. The hazard ratio of diabetes mellitus in the subgroup with the ADA final score ≥5 as compared to those with a lower final score was 1.9. Advanced age, history of gestational diabetes, family history of diabetes mellitus, history of hypertension, low physical activity, and higher body mass index were the main determinants of diabetes mellitus. According to ADA guidelines and the diabetes mellitus risk assessment tool, 32.5% of the population residents in Kerman City are potentially at risk for diabetes mellitus that can be successfully predicted aide by the ADA risk assessment tool.