Predictive Model for Affordable Greenhouse Operations

Abstract

Food insecurity is an increasing problem worldwide due to the effects of climate change and lack of access to water. Lower agricultural outputs lead to higher food prices, which only exacerbates food insecurity. Technology innovations that can help mitigate some of these issues, such as affordable greenhouses, are increasingly being used across Sub-Saharan Africa. Greenhouses help reduce water consumption and often produce higher crop yields. This article describes a predictive model that assesses the probability of success for different use cases for greenhouses. By utilizing inputs (water accessibility, level of agricultural expertise, soil quality, etc.) and by taking into account the modes of greenhouse operation (whether crops are grown to maturity and harvest, seedlings are transplanted to open-air fields, etc.), the model forecasts outputs (mainly net yield) to better predict the success of a given greenhouse. Each input is identified and discussed in terms of how it affects the greenhouse and the four modes of operation are outlined, including how they each affect outputs. The outputs are then described followed by several scenarios that can be used to better understand the model. This article is of interest to innovators and entrepreneurs engaged in greenhouse farming as well as nonprofits and agricultural ministries trying to support them. The real value of this article is not in predicting yields as much as understanding the relationships between the inputs, outputs, and environmental parameters for different modes of operation and use cases.