Моделювання оцiнки рiвня ризику функцiонування соцiо-економiчних систем

Abstract

The research of the actual task of developing the technology of assessing the level of functioning of the system to support decision making from the regular mode to the disaster.For the first time, the study presents inputs for assessing the functioning of the system in a hybrid manner, based on the experience, knowledge and expertise of experts, as well as data mining. A block diagram of the assessment of the level of functioning of the system to support decision making is demonstrated.For the first time, a fuzzy mathematical model for evaluating the level of functioning of a system to support decision-making is proposed, according to a step-by-step algorithm based on expert hybrid data, using linguistic and quantitative variables. In doing so, the criterion estimates of the functioning system are aggregated based on the decision maker’s judgment (pessimistic / cautious / average / optimistic scenarios). According to the threshold of possibility of functioning of system there is a risk assessment for quality ofdecision-making in different modes. As a result of evaluating the system in different modes of operation, we obtain a quantitative assessment of the risk of system functioning relative to the scenario of the event deployment, the linguistic level of system functioning and the level of risk acceptance of the system functioning. All this allows to reveal uncertainties of expert opinions and data obtained, substantiate the degree of decision-making and draw adequate conclusions, taking into account the mode of operation of the system.Within the framework of the developed research, a logical statement of the rule of belonging of linguistic assessments, matrix and knowledge base of determining the acceptability of the level of risk of functioning of the system is formulated.The validity of the obtained results is ensured by the correct use of intellectual knowledge analysis, systematic approach, fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, which is confirmed by the research results. The research conducted will be a useful tool to support decisionmaking, to create and manage decisions in different modes of system operation.