Predictive machine learning models for anticipating loss to follow-up in tuberculosis patients throughout anti-TB treatment journey

Abstract

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) in tuberculosis (TB) management increases morbidity and mortality, challenging effective control strategies. This study aims to develop and evaluate machine learning models to predict loss to follow-up in TB patients, improving treatment adherence and outcomes. Retrospective data encompassing tuberculosis patients who underwent treatment or registration at the National Center for Clinical Medical Research on Infectious Diseases from January 2017 to December 2021 were compiled. Employing machine learning techniques, namely SVM, RF, XGBoost, and logistic regression, the study aimed to prognosticate LTFU. A comprehensive cohort of 24,265 tuberculosis patients underwent scrutiny, revealing a LTFU prevalence of 12.51% (n = 3036). Education level, history of hospitalization, alcohol consumption, outpatient admission, and prior tuberculosis history emerged as precursors for pre-treatment LTFU. Employment status, outpatient admission, presence of chronic hepatitis/cirrhosis, drug adverse reactions, alternative contact availability, and health insurance coverage exerted substantial influence on treatment-phase LTFU. XGBoost consistently surpassed alternative models, boasting superior discriminative ability with an average AUC of 0.921 for pre-treatment LTFU and 0.825 for in-treatment LTFU. Our study demonstrates that the XGBoost model provides superior predictive performance in identifying LTFU risk among tuberculosis patients. The identification of key risk factors highlights the importance of targeted interventions, which could lead to significant improvements in treatment adherence and patient outcomes.