Predictive Flight Trajectory for Low Thrust-to-Weight Ratio Airplanes Approaching Microburst

Abstract

We discuss the requirements of a predictive microburst flight trajectory guidance system, and analyze the trajectories of low thrust-to-weight ratio airplanes passing through a microburst downdraft and vortex ring along the approach glideslope. The simulation results reveal that it is possible to fly through such a microburst using 5–20 deg pitch angle and maximum thrust. T tests and one-way analysis of variance reveal that the aircraft energy change rate alone is not an adequate indication of whether the airplane will penetrate the microburst successfully or crash. Therefore, we recommend that the Federal Aviation Administration AC 00-54 Pilot Windshear Guide and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Manual on Low-Level Wind Shear be revised to incorporate aircraft-specific pitch angles together with the associated aircraft energy change rate and F-factor values. We also recommend that the Federal Aviation Administration Order JO 7110.65Y specify an increased aircraft separation minimum to minimize a midair collision during a microburst. The proposed integrated predictive flight guidance system, which consists of the ground-based and airborne radar, lidar, and anemometers, need to detect the microburst at least 13 nm in advance, distinguish between different localized wind shear, and determine viable flight trajectories for each pitch angle at least 6 nm in advance without sacrificing accuracy and precision.