Predictions for the timing and use of culling or vaccination during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

Abstract

First-fortnight incidence (FFI) is a modelling parameter that can be used to predict both the prevalence and duration of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic at regional and national levels. With an indication of how long an epidemic may last by the end of week two, it becomes possible to estimate whether vaccination would be economically viable from the start of an epidemic. Where FFI indicates that an epidemic is unlikely to last for as long as an export ban on agricultural produce, it may be inappropriate to implement a policy of ‘vaccination to live’. Alternatively where FFI indicates that an epidemic will equal or exceed the ban length, then the benefits of vaccination should be considered at an early stage, during or after the first fortnight. Since blanket vaccination of the national or regional herds and flocks would be both costly and heighten the risk of producing carrier animals, targetting vaccination through risk assessment becomes useful.