Prediction of Urban Waste Disposal Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract

The amount of municipal solid waste(MSW)transportation has become an important basis of handling urban domestic waste, at the same time, accurate predictions of time series data have motivated the researchers to develop innovative models for urban solid waste management.Therefore, predicting the MSW transportation amount in a scientific manner is one of the most essential parts of the urban waste management work. Based on the raw data of MSW transportation amount from 1993 to 2012 of Wuhan city, the capital of Hubei province, this paper chose Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(also called ARIMA model), used Eviews software to process the data and test various effective inspection, then made a prediction of the amount of MSW transportation of Wuhan, and got access to the conclusions through comparing the original data and predicted one. The results showed that the predicted value of the amount of MSW transportation in 2013 was consistent with the original one, and would reach 214.82 wt in 2014. The results also demonstrated that, the MSW transportation amount prediction based on ARIMA model is practicable due to its high applicability and accuracy, offering decisive information for the urban environmental planning and urban domestic waste controlling.