Prediction of Traffic Flow considering Electric Vehicle Market Share and Random Charging

Abstract

This paper mainly studies the multiclass stochastic user equilibrium problem considering the market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and random charging behavior (RCB) in a mixed transport network containing electric vehicles and gasoline vehicles (GVs). In order to analyze the random charging and path choice behaviors of BEV users and extract the differences in travel behaviors between BEV and GV users, an improved logit-based model, multilabel algorithm, and queuing theory are applied. The influencing factors of charging possibility mainly include the initial state of charge (SOC), the SOC at the beginning of charging, and the psychologically acceptable safe SOC threshold arriving at the destination. Diversity choices of user paths and charging locations will result in changes in queuing traffic and differences in queuing time. Conversely, different stations have different queuing dwell times, which will also affect the routing and charging locations for BEVs with RCB. The path-based method of successive averages (MSA) is adopted to solve the model. Through the simulation of the test network Sioux Falls, the equilibrium traffic flow and possible charging flow under different market shares and initial SOC are predicted, and the properties of the model and the feasibility of the algorithm are verified.