Prediction of the strong earthquakes in Vrancea, Romania, using the CN algorithm

Abstract

The application of the CN algorithm to a new earthquake catalogue, for the period from 1932 to 1993, obtained by merging Romanian and U.S.S.R. data, allows us to monitor, on the intermediate time scale, the preparation of strong, intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region. Four of the five strong earthquakes with a magnitude above 6.4 are predicted, the total duration of the Time of Increased Probability of the occurrence of an earthquake (TIP) occupies 21.7% of the time interval under consideration, i.e., about 2.5 years for each strong earthquake.