Prediction of the live weight at breeding age from morphological measurements taken at weaning in indigenous Honamli kids using data mining algorithms

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to predict live weight at breeding age (LW) based on weaning morphological traits, which birth weight (BW), weaning weight (WW), withers height (WH), back height (BH), rump height (RH), chest depth (CD), body length (BL), tail length (TL), chest girth (CG), leg girth (LG), front shark circumference (FSC), head length (HL), head width (HW), nose length (NL), ear length (EL), and ear width (EW). For this purpose, measurements were taken from 84 Honamli kids born in 2018. The study also included sex, birth type (BT), and ear type as the nominal predictors. For this purpose, two MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines), which are interaction (MARS2) and non-interaction (MARS1), and based-tree algorithms, such as CART (Classification and Regression Tree), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector), and Exhaustive CHAID, were used by cross-validation 5 and compared with each other considering the predictive performance by taking into account nine predictive performances criteria. LW has a significantly positive and high linear relationship with WH (0.770), BH (0.770), RH (0.750), BL (0.750), and CG (0.770), respectively (p < 0.01). According to these criteria, second-order interaction MARS2 model had the best performance among all data mining algorithms. Also, the CHAID algorithm was the best predictor of LW among regression tree-based algorithms. The CHAID algorithm predicted that the Honamli goat with 14.426 < WW < 15.575kg and HW > 16.464cm had the heaviest LW at 56.268kg. The MARS2 model showed that the heaviest LW could be produced by WW > 16.10kg, HW > 17cm, Sex-Male × BL > 60cm, WW × BL < 50cm, BT-twin × WW < 15.60kg, BL > 50cm × CG > 62.4cm and male goats. Also, CHAID and MARS2 algorithms explain 92.00% and 94.50% of the variation in LW, respectively. According to the results, it can be concluded that the CHAID and MARS algorithms used in the prediction of LW at breeding age could give an idea to reveal the breed standards examined for breeding purposes. While determining that there are important statistical methods in defining body characteristics at weaning in a complex way, the body characteristics determined by these models can be used as indirect selection criteria.