Prediction of the Distribution of Perennial Cultivated Grasses in the Northwest Sichuan Plateau, China under Climate Change

Bin Guo,Tingting Li,Chao Chen,San Wang,Mingtian Wang

doi:10.4236/gep.2019.710008

Abstract

In order to determine the threshold and potential distribution of climatic conditions for perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest plateau of Sichuan, China, the niche model is used to simulate the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of perennial cultivated grasses, and to predict the current and future climate change prospects. The results show that: 1) Wet index, accumulated temperature, isothermal, and annual average temperature range are the four major climatic factors affecting the distribution of perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest Sichuan Plateau. 2) Model training and prediction data can be achieved well under the appropriate range of major climatic factors. 3) Under the background of climate warming, from now to 2080, the potential distribution of perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest plateau of Sichuan, China will increase. The study aims to provide scientific decision-making basis for maintaining grassland ecosystem stability and promoting desertification management and even industrial restructuring of agriculture and animal husbandry.

Highlights

The results show that the AUC values of the predicted age model training set and the verification set data are 0.925 and 0.929, respectively, which are higher than 0.5 of the stochastic model, and the simulation results are all excellent. This shows that the accuracy of the constructed model is extremely high and can be used in the Northwest Sichuan Plateau
The results show that the area of suitable areas with high, medium and low climates is increasing compared with the baseline climate, and the increase of climate suitable area is characterized by suitable climate zone > climate high suitable zone > low climate suitable zone
The maximum entropy model was used to simulate the potential distribution of perennial cultivated grasses in the Northwest Sichuan Plateau based on the selected dominant climatic factors

Summary

Introduction

Global warming has a profound impact on the geographical distribution of biomes and the distribution characteristics of suitable areas (Davis et al, 2001; Bellard et al, 2012). The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), as a spatial distribution model of species geographical scale, has been widely used in the prediction of potential distribution areas of species under the background of climate change (Zhang, 2015). Hu et al (2015b) simulated the distribution pattern of Stipa breviflora in the history, current and future of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and explored the causes of changes in species distribution. Yang (2016) constructed a climatically suitable distribution area of different grades of Stipa genus by the maximum entropy model and ArcGIS spatial analysis. The research mainly focuses on the investigation of wild forage resources community, cultivated grass selection, genetic diversity, hydrothermal ecological characteristics, etc. (Ma et al, 2014; Tang et al, 2018; Zhang, 2007; Pan & Wang, 1993; Wang et al, 1995; Zhang et al, 2018)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion