Prediction of spontaneous vaginal delivery in the prolonged second stage using the delta angle of progression

Abstract

It is clinically challenging to determine when to intervene in the prolonged second stage. Although individualized prediction of spontaneous vaginal delivery is crucial to avoid maternal and neonatal complications associated with operative deliveries, the approach has not been fully established. We aimed to evaluate the predictability of spontaneous vaginal delivery using the difference in angle of progression between pushing and rest, delta angle of progression, to establish a novel method to predict spontaneous vaginal delivery during the prolonged second stage in nulliparous women with epidural anesthesia. We retrospectively analyzed deliveries of nulliparous women with epidural anesthesia between September 2018 and October 2023. Women were included if their delta angle of progression during the second stage was available. Operative deliveries were defined as the cases that required forceps, vacuum, and cesarean deliveries due to labor arrest. Women requiring operative deliveries due to fetal and maternal concerns, or women with fetal occiput posterior presentation were excluded. The second stage was stratified into the prolonged second stage, the period after three hours in the second stage, and the normal second stage, the period from the beginning until the third hour of the second stage. The association of the delta angle of the progression measured during each stage with spontaneous vaginal delivery and operative deliveries was investigated. Furthermore, the predictability of spontaneous vaginal delivery was evaluated by combining the delta and rest angle of progression. A total of 129 women were eligible for analysis. The delta angle of progression measured during the prolonged second stage and normal second stage were significantly larger in women who achieved spontaneous vaginal delivery compared to operative deliveries (p<0.001 and p<0.05, respectively). During the prolonged second stage, a cutoff of 18.8 derived from the receiver operative characteristic curves in the context of the delta angle of progression predicted the possibility of spontaneous vaginal delivery (sensitivity, 81.8%; specificity, 60.0%; AUC, 0.76). Combining the rest angle of progression (>140) and delta angle of progression (>18.8) also provided quantitative prediction of spontaneous vaginal delivery (sensitivity, 86.7%; specificity, 70.0%; AUC, 0.80). The delta angle of progression alone or in combination with the rest angle of progression can be used to predict spontaneous vaginal delivery in the second stage in nulliparous women with epidural anesthesia. Quantitative analysis of the effect of pushing using the delta angle of progression provides an objective guide to assist with an assessment of labor dystocia in the prolonged second stage on an individualized basis, which may optimize labor management in the prolonged second stage by reducing neonatal and maternal complications related to unnecessary operative deliveries and prolonged second stage of labor.