Abstract
Precisely assessing the severity of persons with COVID-19 at an early stage is an effective way to increase the survival rate of patients. Based on the initial screening, to identify and triage the people at highest risk of complications that can result in mortality risk in patients is a challenging problem, especially in developing nations around the world. This problem is further aggravated due to the shortage of specialists. Using machine learning (ML) techniques to predict the severity of persons with COVID-19 in the initial screening process can be an effective method which would enable patients to be sorted and treated and accordingly receive appropriate clinical management with optimum use of medical facilities. In this study, we applied and evaluated the effectiveness of three types of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine and Random forest regression using a variety of learning methods, for early prediction of severity using patient history and laboratory findings. The performance of different machine learning techniques to predict severity with clinical features shows that it can be successfully applied to precisely and quickly assess the severity of the patient and the risk of death by using patient history and laboratory findings that can be an effective method for patients to be triaged and treated accordingly.
Highlights
The novel COVID-19 disease was detected in Wuhan city, Hubei province and reported to the WHO Country Office inChina on 31 December 2019; since it has spread to countries and territories around the whole world [1]
The 80 samples of the data set were randomly partitioned into a training data set and a testing data set, the training data set consisting of 62.5% samples and remaining 37.5% samples used for testing
The best performance was recorded by the multilayer perceptron neural network training with Bayesian regularization algorithms
Summary
The novel COVID-19 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2) disease was detected in Wuhan city, Hubei province and reported to the WHO Country Office inChina on 31 December 2019; since it has spread to countries and territories around the whole world [1]. The novel COVID-19 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2) disease was detected in Wuhan city, Hubei province and reported to the WHO Country Office in. COVID-19 is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus and a member of the Coronavirus family that resides in mammals and birds. The mortality rates significantly vary with varieties of virus; SARS has the highest mortality rate the common flu has the lowest rate. The severity scale of COVID-19 infection varies from mild to critical [4]. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention report on the severity of the disease features Mild (80.9%), Severe disease (13.8%), and Critical disease (4.7%) with a fatality rate of 2.3 percent [4,5]
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