Prediction of severity of aviation landing accidents using support vector machine models

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to apply support vector machine (SVM) models to predict the severity of aircraft damage and the severity of personal injury during an aircraft approach and landing accident and to evaluate and rank the importance of 14 accident factors across 39 sub-categorical factors. Three new factors were introduced using the theory of inattentional blindness: The presence of visual area surface penetrations for a runway, the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) visual area surface penetration policy timeframe, and the type of runway approach lighting. The study comprised 1,297 aircraft approach and landing accidents at airports within the United States with at least one instrument approach procedure. Support vector machine models were developed in using the linear, polynomial, radial basis function (RBF), and sigmoid kernels for the severity of aircraft damage and additional SVM models were developed for the severity of personal injury.The SVM models using the RBF kernel produced the best machine learning models with a 96% accuracy for predicting the severity of aircraft damage (0.94 precision, 0.95 recall, and 0.95 F1-score) and a 98% accuracy for predicting the severity of personal injury (0.99 precision, 0.98 recall, and 0.99 F1-score). The top predictors across both models were the pilot’s total flight hours, time of the accident, pilot’s age, crosswind component, landing runway number, single-engine land certificate, and any obstacle penetration. This study demonstrates the benefit of SVM modeling using the RBF kernel for accident prediction and for datasets with categorical factors.