Abstract
The concept of a rock and gas outburst as an event in a random field is presented. Within the framework of the concept a non-physical approach to outburst prediction is demonstrated. The approach employs a cause-effect scheme to study relations between the causes and effects of outbursts. The effects are recognized as dychotomic functions of space that take value one when an outburst occurred and value zero in the opposite case. The effects are real-valued functions of space that are interpreted as realizations of a random field. The division of the cause space and the approximation of the effects by simple functions with regard to the division under the criterion of the minimum mean squared error lead to a model that allows outburst prediction. The parameters of the model was were estimated on the basis of measured data from the “Nowa Ruda” coal mine. An example of the application of the model is also presented.
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