Abstract
The paper presents the prediction and modelling of rock and gas outbursts, since these are good examples of multivariable hazards in rock masses. A critical evaluation of outburst modelling is discussed and the need for system modelling of complex natural hazards is pointed out. The concept of an outburst as an event in a random field is presented. Within this conceptual framework a non-physical approach to outburst prediction, making use of measured data, is demonstrated. The approach uses the cause-effect ‘black box’ scheme to study relations between the causes and effects of outbursts. The system is assumed to be described by relations of a monotonic type, between causes and effects of outbursts. These assumptions are verified using data from the Lower Silesian Coal Basin (Poland).
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