Prediction of reservoir performance in multi-well systems using modified hyperbolic model

Abstract

Decline curve analyses are usually based on empirical Arps’ equations: exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic decline. The applicable decline for the purpose of reservoir estimates is usually based on the historical trend that is seen on the well or reservoir performance. This remains an important tool for the reservoir engineer, so that the practice of decline curve analysis has been developed over the years through both theoretical and empirical considerations. Despite the fact that the fundamental principles are well known and understood, there are aspects which can still lead to a range of forecast and reserve estimates that until now have not been investigated. In this work, a model was developed considering the effect of well aggregation and interference in multi-well systems. This approach accounts for the entire production history of the well and the reservoir, and thus reduces the influence of well interference effects on decline curve analysis. It provides much better estimates of reserves in multi-well systems. The models were validated with field data from different wells. Production decline data from different wells in a reservoir were analyzed and used to demonstrate the application of the developed model.