Prediction of Regional Revenue and Expenditure Budget using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

Abstract

The Regional Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBD in Indonesia) is a financial plan stipulated by Regional Regulations. The APBD of the North Sumatra Provincial Government is the reflection of development direction in the Province of North Sumatra since it would not be possible to execute the regional development process without being supported by adequate cash. Therefore, this study aims to predict the APBD allocation in 5 types of accounts, namely Regional Original Revenues, Balancing Funds, Other Legal Regional Revenues, Indirect Expenditures, and Direct Expenditures using time series data from 2002 to 2019. The proposed method in this study is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, which is a forecasting method using the time series data in the form of current and past data of the APBD. The results showed that the forecasting of the 2020 APBD value for the Regional Original Revenue account is IDR 6,989,217 Million, for the Balance Fund account is worth IDR 8045.259 Million, for Other Legitimate Income is at IDR 317,546 Million, for Indirect Shopping is worth IDR 9,308,607 Million and for Direct Shopping at IDR 5,495,597 Million.