Prediction of Plant Phenological Shift under Climate Change in South Korea

Ha Kyung Lee,So Jeong Lee,Sang Don Lee,Min Kyung Kim

doi:10.3390/su12219276

Abstract

Information on the phenological shift of plants can be used to detect climate change and predict changes in the ecosystem. In this study, the changes in first flowering dates (FFDs) of the plum tree (Prunus mume), Korean forsythia (Forsythia koreana), Korean rosebay (Rhododendron mucronulatum), cherry tree (Prunus yedoensis), and peach tree (Prunus persica) in Korea during 1920–2019 were investigated. In addition, the changes in the climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and their relationship with the FFDs were analyzed. The changes in the temperature and precipitation during the January–February–March period and the phenological shifts of all research species during 1920–2019 indicate that warm and dry spring weather advances the FFDs. Moreover, the temperature has a greater impact on this phenological shift than precipitation. Earlier flowering species are more likely to advance their FFDs than later flowering species. Hence, the temporal asynchrony among plant species will become worse with climate change. In addition, the FFDs in 2100 were predicted based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The difference between the predicted FFDs of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 for 2100 was significant; the effectiveness of greenhouse gas policies will presumably determine the degree of the plant phenological shift in the future. Furthermore, we presented the predicted FFDs for 2100.

Highlights

IntroductionRepeated phenological events (e.g., flowering, leaf falling, first appearance of migratory birds, and breeding of vertebrates) can be studied to determine the effects of climate change [1,2,3]
Repeated phenological events can be studied to determine the effects of climate change [1,2,3]
The averaged first flowering dates (FFDs) of the plant species at the observation sites fluctuated with similar cycles to the climatic factors; the overall changes were advanced by 10–53 days during 100 years (Table 3)

Summary

Introduction

Repeated phenological events (e.g., flowering, leaf falling, first appearance of migratory birds, and breeding of vertebrates) can be studied to determine the effects of climate change [1,2,3]. As environmental conditions have been changed due to climate change, diverse of taxonomic groups have shown a shift in phenological events such as earlier onset of vegetation activity in spring, extension in the length of the growing season [4], modified distribution of insects and changes to insect migration routes [5,6], and mistimed avian reproduction [7]. Plants are highly sensitive to climatic changes because they are sessile organisms [8,9,10]. They are producers at the bottom of the trophic level; their phenological change can influence the upper taxonomic groups such as pollinators and predators. The prediction of plant phenological shift can provide information on how ecological interactions and structure would transfigure in the future

Methods

Results

Conclusion