Prediction of land cover changes in Penajam Paser Utara Regency using cellular automata and markov model

Abstract

Development and economic growth in an area can cause land cover changes. Penajam Paser Utara Regency, as a new capital candidate, is also predicted to experience in land cover changes. Land cover changes that are not following the land’s potential will cause environmental problems, so it is necessary to predict land cover changes by looking at patterns of land cover changes in the past and the factors that influence it. The purpose of this study is to analyze and predict the land cover change in Penajam Paser Utara Regency in 2031. The method used in this study is modeling using Cellular Automata - Markov. The driving factor of land cover change is used in making prediction models such as distance from the center of activity, distance from the road, distance from the river, elevation, and slope. The prediction land cover changes show that there has been an increase in plantation area and a decrease in forest area, while the development of the built-up area is not visible. The kappa test for predicted land cover showed perfect results. The resulting land cover model can be used to formulate land-use policies.