Prediction of land cover change in the Belawan watershed using the cellular automata-markov chain model

Abstract

Belawan Watershed is one of the watersheds that cross Medan City, the capital of North Sumatra province. The spatial distribution of land cover affects the hydrological conditions in this watershed. The purpose of this study is to predict land cover in 2032 so that it can be used as information to mitigate changes in forest land cover. The method used is Cellular Automata-Markov Chain modeling with five change parameters (driving factors): distance from the river, distance from the road, altitude, population density, and slope. Land cover changes in the Belawan watershed used for this modeling include land cover in 2012, 2017, and 2022 and predicted land cover in 2032. The results showed that the predicted land cover is the water body 998.409 ha (1.36%), dryland forest 970.399 ha (1.32%), mangrove forest 3,351.496 ha (4.58%), settlement 11,600.105 ha (15.85%), plantation 38,787.924 ha (53.01%), agriculture 8,674.632 ha (11.85%), rice fields 5,568.183 ha (7.6%) and ponds 3,218.175 ha (4.3%). The area of forests and mangroves tends to continue to decline, so mitigation efforts are needed to reduce the reduction rate in forest and mangrove land cover.